This Denver Gazette article by Marianne Goodland lays out the ugly math Colorado lawmakers are now staring at. The state’s revenue forecast got worse again, and the projected budget shortfall for 2026-27 has ballooned to nearly $1.5 billion. That means deeper cuts, tighter choices, and no TABOR refunds for Colorado residents because revenues are coming in well below the cap.
Goodland reports that economists with the Legislative Council downgraded the forecast by another $643 million, driven in large part by weaker-than-expected general fund revenue from individual income taxes, corporate income taxes, and sales and use taxes. The article also notes a split between the legislature’s economists and the governor’s budget office, with the governor’s side offering a more optimistic read, but even that view still points to slower growth, tighter household finances, and serious pressure on the state budget.
The story also makes clear where the political spin begins. Democrats on the Joint Budget Committee called the forecast “devastating” and pointed to rising prices, federal cuts, global uncertainty, and TABOR constraints. Republicans, meanwhile, argued the budget mess is self-inflicted after years of overspending and government growth under one-party control. That part is not exactly hard to understand.
The Bullet Point Brief
- Colorado’s budget hole is now nearly $1.5 billion after another revenue downgrade. That is not a pothole. That is a crater with a committee hearing attached.
- Tax collections for 2025-26 came in $354 million below what was estimated in December, and the 2026-27 estimate is down another roughly $143 million. Turns out you cannot budget on vibes forever.
- No TABOR refunds are expected in 2026 because revenues are nearly $1 billion below the threshold. So after years of hearing that government just needs one more program and one more spending package, taxpayers get the bill and the lecture.
- Democrats blamed inflation, federal cuts, global uncertainty, and TABOR. Convenient. The article also notes Republicans saying the real problem is years of overspending and explosive government growth. That explanation has the advantage of matching the receipts.
- Medicaid caseload is identified in the article as the biggest challenge to state spending, and the forecasts also warn about weaker consumer demand, tighter family finances, and recession risk. In plain English, the state checkbook is under stress, and the people in charge are acting shocked that arithmetic still works.
My Bottom Line
Is anybody surprised by this? I’m not. This is what seven years of one-party Democrat control gets you. They build government like a teenager with somebody else’s credit card. There is always another pet project, another “investment,” another urgent moral crusade funded with your money. Then when the numbers collapse, they put on their best funeral face and act like this budget hole fell from the sky.
Let’s be plain about it. Donald Trump did not write Colorado’s budget. TABOR did not force lawmakers to expand government year after year and pretend the good times would roll forever. TABOR is a taxpayer protection. It is not the reason politicians cannot control themselves. The people running this state made choices. Expensive choices. Ideological choices. Choices that treated your paycheck like an endless public utility.
And now here comes the usual script. Democrats will blame Trump. They will blame uncertainty. They will blame inflation. They will blame TABOR because they always blame TABOR when taxpayers are still allowed to keep even a sliver of control. What they will not do willingly is own the fact that Colorado has become one of the most regulated, taxed, and fee-stacked states in the country under their watch. You do not get to drive the bus into the ditch and then blame the guardrail.
The hardest truth here is this: government growth is easy when the revenue forecast is rosy. Governing responsibly when the bill comes due, that is the test. And Colorado’s ruling class has flunked it. They spent like virtue signaling was a line item with no ceiling. Now families, schools, providers, and taxpayers get to live with the consequences.
Remember this when the governor’s race heats up. This budget mess did not happen by accident. It happened because the people in charge believed bigger government was always the answer. It was not. It is not. And if Colorado wants a different result, we had better start electing people who know the difference between stewardship and a spending addiction.
Source: The Denver Gazette
