In The Denver Post, reporter Nick Coltrain details a grim forecast from state economists: recession risk is rising into 2026 and Colorado’s budget picture remains dire, with a projected $1 billion gap. The Joint Budget Committee heard that recent federal shutdowns muddied data, but the trend lines are clear enough to worry anyone who reads balance sheets.
Coltrain reports job growth has slowed to about 0.6 percent this year through September, far below the pre pandemic 2.2 percent pace. Forecast writers say lawmakers will need to find around $1 billion in cuts just to keep up with rising costs, particularly in Medicaid, while the state dips deeper into cash reserves. The new forecast worsens the deficit by another $477 million compared with September.
The Bullet Point Brief
- Recession risk up; data is murky post shutdown, but the budget warning lights are flashing red.
- Job growth slowed to roughly 0.6 percent vs. 2.2 percent pre pandemic. That’s not momentum. That’s molasses.
- Lawmakers must carve out about $1 billion in cuts while cash reserves sink to about $399 million, and the outlook worsened by $477 million since September.
- Popular credits like the expanded EITC and Family Affordability Tax Credit are projected to be shut off next tax year. The bill comes due.
- JBC starts Jan. 14, aiming to write a budget off the March forecast for an $18 billion general fund. Sharpen the pencils.
My Bottom Line
Colorado’s budget is in a structural deficit. That is not a vibe. It is math. The Polis administration expanded government headcount and programs, and the bill has arrived. The best thing this legislature can do right now is cut spending. Cut it. Not someday. Now.
In Weld County, my mind is always on the same questions: how do we reduce size and expenditures; do more with less; use technology for efficiency; get leaner and more streamlined while improving service? The private sector lives that reality every day. Government should too. Mission impossible? Hardly. It is just unpopular under the Gold Dome.
The Post’s forecast isn’t a speed bump. It is a wall. If lawmakers won’t right-size now, the automatic stabilizers will do it for them in uglier ways, whether by shutting off credits, raiding reserves, or squeezing core services. Choose discipline or get disciplined.
Source: The Denver Post
